When arguing the potentials of things like peak oil, over-population, and global warming I often have official government projections thrown at me. I have problems with most of these projections. Sometimes because I do not think they are making reasonable assumptions, like with UN population projections. Other times because I am not sure their data is adequate, like with social issues. Occasionally I just distrust the agency’s motives, like when the US government keeps claiming the US economy is “doin’ fine.” This is a new favorite of mine. They are pretty much telling everyone to go along with their business, ignore the lack of a manufacturing base, high unemployment and inadequate employment, and utterly astronomical public and private debts.
Just to offer an example as to the inadequacy of many of these projections below you can check on the progress of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) oil price projections from 2006. The EIA is a part of the US Department of Energy and below offers a low, reference (or likely), and high projections for the future of oil prices until 2030. Enjoy!
– Benjamin Shender